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Estimates of cancer incidence in Germany
- Alexander Katalinic, Klaus Giersiepen, Bremen Cancer Registry (7 June 2007)
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Estimates of Female Malignant Breast Cancer Incidence in Great Britain and Ireland in 2006
- Patrick S Carroll, reg charity no 327942 (13 March 2007)
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Alexander Katalinic, Director of the Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, University Luebeck, Germany Institute for Cancer Epidemiology, University of Luebeck, Beckergrube 43-47, 23552 Luebeck, Germany, Klaus Giersiepen, Bremen Cancer Registry
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Letter to the Editor concerning: 'Estimates of the cancer incidence and mortality in Europe in 2006' by J. Ferlay et al, Annals of Oncology 18: 581–592, 2007 Dear Sirs, Dr. Ferlay and colleagues should be congratulated for their efforts to present recent updates of estimates on cancer incidence and mortality for 38 European countries [1]. Somewhat surprising, however, we find their statement that for Germany neither local nor national reliable historical data incidence data exists. As far as Germany is concerned, there are at least local data covering the time of interest from the Saarland registry. That information had been included in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, ironically compiled by at least one of the same authors [2]. Saarland provides data as shown in Table 1 [3]. National incidence estimates for Germany are also available for the years 1998, 2000 and 2002, published by the Association of Population-Based Cancer Registries in Germany and the Robert Koch-Institute (Cancer in Germany, www.gekid.de, [4]). showing a slightly higher incidence for Germany than for Saarland (Table 1). We like to mention that in the case of France national incidence estimates were used by the authors. Table 1: Cancer data for Germany: all cancer sites (C00-97 w/out C44, age-standardised incidence rates (European standard) per 100 000
We would appreciate if future compilations were rather be based on data from the populations of interest than on interpolations from neighbouring registries. Yours faithfully
Alexander Katalinic, MD
Klaus Giersiepen, MD, MPH
References Conflict of Interest:None declared |
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Patrick S Carroll, Diretor of Research PAPRI, Pensions And Population Research Institute, 35 Canonbury Road, London N1 2DG, reg charity no 327942
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The Editor Annals of Oncology Dear Sir Estimates of Female Malignant Breast Cancer Incidence in Great Britain and Ireland in 2006 The article by J Ferlay et al. in the February Annals of Oncology [1] produces some odd results as short term forecasts for breast cancer incidence in 2006. In particular the forecast of an age standardised rate of incidence for female malignant breast cancer at 131.4 per 100,000 women for Ireland is 7.5% higher than the forecast of 122.2 per 100,000 for the United Kingdom. There are only a few years of national breast cancer incidence statistics available for the Irish Republic and so simple linear extrapolation of incidence rates, without using a model that incorporates explanatory variables, is more open to error from yearly fluctuations in reported incidence. The Cancer Atlas of the United Kingdom and Ireland 1991-2000 [2] published in 2005 reported a rate of 97 per 100,000 for Ireland (Republic and Northern Ireland included) which is 10.2% less than the average for all the British Isles of 108 per 100,000. Moreover consideration of the effects of known reproductive risk factors such as fertility and abortion indicates a lesser increase in Irish breast cancer rates than in Great Britain. The birth rate has continued at a higher rate in Ireland and the abortion rates are much lower. Linear regression modelling for successive birth cohorts of women with breast cancer incidence rates as response variable and with cumulated cohort fertility and abortion rates as explanatory variables has produced more credible forecasts for England & Wales and for Scotland [3]. These 1997 based forecasts were published in 2002 [3] and have anticipated quite well the subsequent increase, more than 2% a year in England & Wales, in breast cancer incidence up to 2003. This modelling has now been applied to the Irish Republic. A lesser increase, 0.3% a year, is estimated for Irish breast cancer incidence. This implies that Irish breast cancer rates will be some 14% lower than British rates in 2006. Yours faithfully Patrick Carroll PAPRI, London email papriresearch@btconnect.com References 1. Estimates of the cancer incidence and mortality in Europe in 2006. J Ferlay, P Autier, M Boniot et al. Annals of Oncology. February 2007. 2. Cancer Atlas of the United Kingdom and Ireland 1991-2000. editors M Quinn, H Wood, N Cooper and S Rowan. Office for National Statistics. London 2005. 3. Pregnancy Related Risk Factors in Female Breast Cancer Incidence. P Carroll. International Congress of Actuaries, Transactions (2002) 4:331- 75 Conflict of Interest:None declared |
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