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Annals of Oncology 15:793-796, 2004
© 2004 European Society for Medical Oncology

Original Paper

Joinpoint regression analysis of lung cancer mortality, Andalusia 1975–2000

Received 2 June 2003; revised 11 November 2003; accepted 2 January 2004

Background:

Previous analyses of lung cancer mortality were based on models of death rates within one time period, assuming that rates increase or decrease with time at a constant rate. The aim of this work is to analyse recent changes in lung cancer mortality trends in Andalusia (Spain) during the period of 1975–2000 using joinpoint regression models.

Patients and methods:

Mortality data were obtained from the Death Registry of Andalusia. For each gender, age group-specific and standardised (overall and truncated) rates were calculated by the direct method (using the world standard population). The joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points where a statistically significant change in the trend occurred.

Results:

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in men, with an increasing trend up to 1994. After that year, rates began to decrease significantly (–1.8% yearly from 1994 to 2000). Standardised rates in women exhibited a downward trend until the early 1990s, after which they levelled off (overall standardised rates) or increased significantly (truncated rates 35–64 years).

Conclusions:

An increase in lung cancer mortality has been observed in young women. There seems to be a relationship with the prevalence in smoking in men and women.

A. Cayuela1,*, S. Rodríguez-Domínguez2, J. L. López-Campos3, R. Otero Candelera3 and C. Rodríguez Matutes3

1 Research Department, Virgen del Rocío University Hospitals, Seville; 2 Public Health Center of Bollullos de la Mitación, Seville; 3 Medical-Surgical Unit of Respiratory Diseases, Virgen del Rocío University Hospitals, Seville, Spain

Key words: epidemiology, lung cancer, mortality, trends


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