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Annals of Oncology 6:581-588, 1995
© 1995 European Society for Medical Oncology

research-article

The prognostic value of CEA, ßHCG, AFP, CA125, CA19-9 and C-erb B-2, (ßHCG immunohistochemistry in advanced colorectal cancer

A. Webb1, P. Scott-Mackie1, D. Cunningham1,, A. Norman1, J. Andreyev1, M. O'Brien1 and J. Bensted2

1The Cancer Research Campaign Section of Medicine and The GI Unit
2The Department of Histopathology, The Royal Marsden Hospital and The Institute of Cancer Research Sutton, Surrey, U.K

Correspondence to: Dr. D. Cunningham, CRC Section of Medicine, The Royal Marsden Hospital, Downs Road, Sutton, Surrey Sm2 5PT, U.K.

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of the prognostic significance of a group of tumour markers and their ability to predict response to chemotherapy may allow better targeting of palliative treatment in advanced colorectal cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using a prospectively acquired database of 377 patients (pts) with advanced colorectal adenocarcinoma, the prognostic significance of serum CEA (342 pts), 0HCG (203 pts), AFP (208 pts), CA125 (150 pts), CA19-9 (76 pts) as well as C-erb B-2 (197 pts), pHCG (197 pts) immunohistochemistry was investigated. Serum markers were taken prior to 5-FU based chemotherapy and immunohistochemistry was performed on diagnostic samples.

RESULTS: Tumour markers of poor prognostic significance in the univariate analysis were CEA > 5 [ig/1 (p boxh 0.006; median survival (MS) 59 weeks vs. 38 weeks) and CA125 > 35 U/ml (p boxh 0.01; MS 51 weeks vs. 30 weeks). Tumour markers elevated at greater than 10 times the normal value which correlated with a poor prognosis were CEA (pboxh0.001; MS 47 weeks vs. 35 weeks), Serum 0HCG (p< 0.0001; MS 44 weeks vs. 7 weeks) and CA125 (p < 0.0001; MS 38 weeks vs. 15 weeks). Poor performance status (>2) and poorly differentiated tumour histology were also correlated to poor survival.

In the multivariate analysis, tumour markers of independent poor prognosis were CEA > 5 [ig/1 (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.8; 95% Confidence Internal (CI) 2.8–1.2), CEA > 50 ng/1 (HR 1.6; CI 2.1–1.2), CA125 > 35 U/ml (HR 1.5; CI 2.3–1.0), CA125 > 350 U/ml (HR 5.0; CI 9.6–2.6) and serum PHCG > 40 IU/1 (HR 11.7; CI 30–4.5). Poor performance status (HR 6.7–5.0) and poorly differentiated histology (HR 2.8-1.0) were the other important factors in the model. No pretreatment tumour marker correlated with response to chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest prognostic study of each tumour marker in advanced disease and it clarifies previous conflicting reports. Serum AFT, CA19-9 and immunohisto-chemical stains PHCG and C-erb B-2 have no prognostic significance. Serum CEA, PHCG, CA125 in advanced colorectal cancer prior to chemotherapy do convey an independent poor prognosis which may reflect not just tumour burden but aggressive biology.

colorectal cancer, chemotherapy, prognostic significance, tumour markers, carcinoembryonic antigen, CA125


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