Annals of Oncology Advance Access originally published online on February 21, 2008
Annals of Oncology 2008 19(5):1009-1018; doi:10.1093/annonc/mdm593
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epidemiology |
Changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality in middle-aged and elderly women in 28 countries with Caucasian majority populations
Data Analysis and Interpretation Group and Epidemiology Methods and Support Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
* Correspondence to: Dr P. Autier, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France. Tel: +33-472-73-81-63; Fax: +33-472-73-83-51; E-mail: autierp{at}iarc.fr
Background: Mammography screening and menopause hormone therapy is essentially offered to women 50–69 years old.
Methods: In 28 European ancestry countries, we quantified changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality using a joinpoint regression analysis from 1960 until last year of available data.
Results: Since 1960, increases in incidence often in the order of 2%–3% per year occurred in all countries, mainly in women 50–69 years old whose incidence in eight countries surpassed the incidence in women 70 years old and more. In 10 countries, a decrease in incidence in women 
70 years was noticeable in the last years of observation, but the magnitude of this decrease was far from matching the magnitude of the increases observed in the 50–69 age-group. In the beginning of years 2000s, a persistent decrease in mortality of 
2% per year was observed in women 50–69 years old in most countries and parallel declines in mortality were observed in women 70 years or more.
Conclusions: In years 2000s, in a number of countries, the incidence of breast cancer has become greater in middle-aged women than in older women. If trends remain unchanged, the same phenomenon is likely to happen in other countries.
Key words: breast cancer, epidemiology, temporal trends
Received for publication October 31, 2007. Revision received December 11, 2007. Accepted for publication December 11, 2007.