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Annals of Oncology 14:1484-1493, 2003
© 2003 European Society for Medical Oncology

Original Paper

Prognosis in node-negative primary breast cancer: a neural network analysis of risk profiles using routinely assessed factors

E. Biganzoli1,+, P. Boracchi2, D. Coradini3, M. Grazia Daidone3 and E. Marubini2

1 Unità di Statistica Medica e Biometria, 3 Unità Operativa Determinanti Biomolecolari nella Prognosi e Terapia, Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Milan; 2 Istituto di Statistica Medica e Biometria, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy

Received 6 February 2003; revised 30 May 2003; accepted 18 July 2003

Background:

The present study investigated complex time-dependent effects of routinely assessed factors on the risk of breast cancer recurrence over follow-up time, with a partial logistic artificial neural network (PLANN) model.

Patients and methods:

PLANN was applied to data from 1793 patients with node-negative breast cancer, not submitted to any adjuvant treatment and with a minimal potential follow-up of 10 years.

Results:

The shape of the hazard function changed according to histology, which showed a time-dependent effect, partly modulated by estrogen receptors (ERs). Age and progesterone receptors (PgR) showed protective effects; the latter was more evident for short follow-up and high ER values. Tumour size and ER content showed time-dependent unfavourable effects at early and long follow-up times, respectively. Predicted values of disease recurrence probability at 2 years of follow-up showed that low steroid-receptor content, young age and large tumour size were associated with the highest risk of relapse. Although the oldest patients with high ER content seem to be those most protected overall, high risk predictions tend to spread also to higher steroid-receptor contents, intermediate ages and small tumour size, with an increase in follow-up time.

Conclusion:

PLANN with suitable visualisation techniques provided thorough insights into the dynamics of breast cancer recurrence for improving individual risk staging of node-negative breast cancer patients.

Key words: artificial neural networks, breast cancer, prognostic factors, survival analysis


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