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Annals of Oncology 10:S74-S78, 1999
© 1999 European Society for Medical Oncology

The impact of smoking on future pancreatic cancer: A computer simulation

I. Mulder, M.L.L. van Genugten, R.T. Hoogenveen, A.E.M. de Hollander and H.B. Bueno-de-Mesquita

Department of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Correspondence to: Ina Mulder, Msc, Department of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, POBox 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands, Email: ina.mulder{at}rivm.nl

Background: We studied the impact of several smoking cessation-based scenarios on future pancreatic cancer incidence in the European Union by means of computer simulation.

Material and methods: Among other data, published data on pancreatic cancer incidence rate and smoking prevalence in ten member states of the European Union, and on the relative risk of smoking were entered into a simulation model. Four different scenarios were simulated: one reference scenario, one based on theoretically maximal smoking reduction and two feasible scenarios based on WHO's Health for All targets. In each scenario, pancreatic cancer incidence was computed from 1994 up to the year 2020. Results were extrapolated to the European Union as a whole.

Results: When the percentage of smokers remains unchanged, 627,000 and 588,000 newly diagnosed pancreatic cancer cases among males and females respectively will arise in the European Union up to 2020. Theoretically, if all smokers would give up smoking instantly, this number can be reduced by 133,000 cases among men and 43,000 cases among women. In more feasible scenarios up to 35,500 male and 32,500 female pancreatic cancer cases can be prevented.

Conclusion: Giving up smoking substantially reduces future burden of pancreatic cancer up to almost 68,000 patients in the European Union up to the year 2020.

computer simulation, European Union, pancreatic cancer incidence, public health, smoking


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